Além da Desordem
uma estrutura teórica da teoria do caos para o Direito Internacional e a ascensão da China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/2526-6284/2023.v14n14.76459Palavras-chave:
Teoria do Caos, Direito Internacional, Dinâmicas Não Lineares, Dependência de Trajetória, Ascensão da China, TWAILResumo
O sistema internacional do século XXI é marcado por deslocamentos de poder não lineares, fragmentação institucional e visões normativas concorrentes. Grande parte da literatura contemporânea caracteriza essas dinâmicas como desordem; porém, essa conceitualização ignora a anarquia ontológica do sistema e confunde transformações complexas e adaptativas com a ruptura sistêmica. Este artigo propõe um paradigma fundamentado na teoria do caos para reinterpretar a governança jurídica internacional, argumentando que a desordem aparente frequentemente oculta padrões emergentes e auto-organizadores. Por meio de um estudo de caso qualitativo sobre a trajetória da China, do Século da Humilhação à Iniciativa do Cinturão e Rota, o trabalho aplica cinco indicadores da teoria do caos: sensibilidade às condições iniciais, conjunturas críticas, persistência estrutural, sequências reativas e equilíbrio adaptativo. A análise por rastreamento de processos e de dependência de trajetória demonstra como traumas históricos, marginalização institucional e adaptação estratégica deram origem a uma arquitetura normativa alternativa que desafia a ordem liberal pós-1945. Os resultados indicam que a teoria do caos oferece uma estrutura analítica mais robusta do que a narrativa de desordem para compreender a evolução jurídica não linear, incorporar perspectivas pluralistas e antecipar estruturas de governança emergentes. O artigo contribui para as Abordagens do Terceiro Mundo ao Direito Internacional (TWAIL) e para os estudos de complexidade ao teorizar o direito internacional como um sistema dinâmico e adaptativo, e não como uma hierarquia normativa estática.
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