Expectations and Brazilian Monetary Policy Commttee shaky forecasts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/1806-9029.v35i1e62674%20Keywords:
Monetary policy, Brazil Central Bank, Inflation targetting, Interest rate, ExpectationsAbstract
Are the forecasts and scenarios made up by the Brazilian Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) consistent with the ex post data? Are data provided by expectations research among market participants and compiled in Focus Market Readout new and useful to the monetary policy decision making process? These are the questions this paper tried to asses through the analysis of 34 Copom meetings minutes, from December 2018 to February 2023. The shaky forecasts built up by Focus and Copom substantiate that the basic interest rate decisions are made in a utmost uncertainty environment. The trade-off thus presented is either finding more efficient scenario building methods or concede the political character of basic interest rate determination.
References
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