Variáveis macroeconômicas e retornos das ações da Bolsa de Valores de Londres
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/2446-9513.2024v11id68778Palavras-chave:
Variáveis Macroeconômicas, Retornos de ações, Bolsa de Valores de LondresResumo
Este estudo examinou o impacto das variáveis macroeconômicas nos retornos das ações da Bolsa de Valores de Londres. O estudo considerou dados de natureza secundária obtidos do Indicador de Desenvolvimento Mundial, da Bolsa de Valores de Londres, das bases de dados Bloomberg e do Office for National Statistics. Os dados foram submetidos a modelos de defasagens distribuídas autorregressivas (ARDL) e teste de causalidade de Granger. O estudo encontrou uma relação positiva entre o produto interno bruto (PIB) e o retorno das ações. Foi revelado que a inflação tem uma relação negativa com o retorno das ações com valor de coeficiente de 0,621885 a um nível de confiança de 5%. Além disso, o estudo revelou uma relação inversa entre as taxas de juros e os retornos das ações com valor de coeficiente de -0,659179 com nível de confiança de 5%. Por fim, o estudo revelou relação positiva entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira e o retorno das ações com valor de coeficiente de 1,006504 a um nível de confiança de 5%. O estudo concluiu que as variáveis macroeconómicas afectam os retornos das acções da LSE. O estudo recomenda, portanto, que o governo administre as variáveis macroeconómicas de forma a melhorar o desempenho do mercado de ações.
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