Risco de crédito em programas de microcrédito: o papel das váriáveis de gênero, idade e escolaridade
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/2446-9513.2025v12id70181Palavras-chave:
Risco de Crédito, Microfinanças, Gênero, Idade, EscolaridadeResumo
O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar o risco de crédito de uma operação de microcrédito líder no Brasil, tanto em número de clientes atendidos quanto em dimensão da carteira de ativos. O estudo considerou uma amostra de 10 mil operações contratadas no ano de 2022, selecionadas aleatoriamente, e a análise de regressão logística multivariada foi aplicada para investigar como a inadimplência se associa com os dados dos grupos de pessoas. O modelo final selecionado considerou seis variáveis independentes, todas significativas, e os resultados mostram que variáveis demográficas como idade, escolaridade e gênero diferenciam significativamente os grupos de inadimplentes e adimplentes. A quantidade de homens e de analfabetos tiveram coeficientes positivos, o que sugere que um aumento nessas variáveis está associado a um aumento na chance de inadimplência. Já a média de idade teve um coeficiente negativo, sugerindo que um aumento nessa variável está associado a uma redução na probabilidade de inadimplência.
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