Previsão de crise global
sistemas financeiros, de inteligência artificial, pandemias e efeito da crise geopolítica na economia mundial
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/2179-3565.2025v16i4p218-240Palavras-chave:
Crise global, Inteligência Artificial, Crises financeiras, Crises geopolíticas, Crises de pandemias, Gastos governamentaisResumo
Uma crise global é um evento inesperado e abrupto que desequilibra a economia e apresenta sérias dificuldades para os governos. Seja causados por pandemias, desastres naturais, crises financeiras globais ou convulsões geopolíticas, esses choques exigem respostas políticas rápidas e eficientes para diminuir seus impactos. Os modelos de estudo foram projetados para resumir dados de séries temporais de trinta grandes economias, bem como potenciais parceiros comerciais, durante o período de 2002 a 2022. O estudo empregará técnicas estatísticas de Tendência e GMM para avaliar os efeitos das respostas dos gastos governamentais nas ações de estabilização econômica em diversas Crises Globais. Esta pesquisa examina o impacto da crise global nas respostas aos gastos governamentais e as causas subjacentes que determinam as escolhas de política fiscal após essas crises. O estudo identifica vários elementos-chave que influenciam as decisões de gastos do governo, incluindo a crise global, o clima político e econômico, os marcos de políticas fiscais e as interdependências internacionais. Além disso, examina os resultados de várias reações de consumo e avalia seus efeitos de longo prazo na economia. Os resultados são estatisticamente significativos e favoráveis, consistentes com estudos anteriores. Em um nível de significância de 1%, o impacto das crises no fator diversidade mostra uma influência positiva forte e significativa na atividade econômica em todos os estimadores. O estudo recomendou que o avanço tecnológico pode apoiar significativamente a recuperação econômica de longo prazo. O acordo global mais eficaz, os Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável das Nações Unidas de 2015, deve estabelecer metas para aumentar a eficiência econômica e mitigar crises globais.
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