Instabilidade não linear de exportação e crescimento econômico: um caso do Paquistão
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23925/2179-3565.2022v13i1p60-71Palavras-chave:
Modelo de efeitos variáveis, Volatilidade, CointegraçãoResumo
As exportações são consideradas o motor do crescimento econômico ao tornar o balanço de pagamentos favorável por meio das receitas cambiais. A instabilidade das exportações refere-se à incerteza sobre as receitas de exportação na economia. Essas incertezas trazem um impacto significativo no comportamento econômico, na capacidade de investimento e, por sua vez, prejudicam o crescimento econômico. O foco do estudo é investigar o impacto da instabilidade das exportações no crescimento econômico do Paquistão. Os dados de séries temporais são usados de 1980 a 2019. A técnica ARDL não linear é aplicada para resultados de curto e longo prazo. Conclui que o crescimento econômico no Paquistão está positivamente relacionado à formação bruta de capital fixo e à força de trabalho, enquanto está negativamente relacionado ao índice de preços ao consumidor. Enquanto a instabilidade de exportação segue uma forma de U invertido. Portanto, os formuladores de políticas precisam estabelecer um limite dentro do qual a instabilidade das exportações seja favorável. Este estudo é fundamental para explorar o efeito não linear da instabilidade das exportações no crescimento econômico, o que é útil para determinar o limite superior e inferior dos desvios do volume de exportação além dos quais o crescimento pode dificultar.
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