Lula’s adminstration: an analysis starting from the Brazilian budget model

Abstract

After two consecutive mandates of president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, it is obvious that external debt and unemployment, economic retraction and social income concentration are increasing in Brazil. The speech contained in the Pluriannual Plan of the current president’s administration, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, proposes the transition from the “conservative modernization model” to the “productive accelerated growth and social inclusion model”. The analysis of the Pluriannual Plan 2004-2007, of the budget guidelines and 2000-2004 budgets reveals a contradiction between the initial speech and the government’s current administration. The results show no evidence that allow us to expect a new development model for the next four years.