A Questão da Seleção Adversa no Microcrédito Produtivo Orientado: Um Estudo sobre o Comportamento de Adimplência de Empreendedores de Baixa Renda

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to model and predict de credit behavior of low-income entrepreneurs based on a sample of 204 customers of a productive microcredit lending organization, Microinvest Sociedade de Crédito ao Microempreendedor. We identify that the Brazilian supply of micro-credit lies far below its demand, partiallybecause of the lack of predictive models about the credit behavior of its target customers. We develop then a predictive default model by using logistic regression and verify a relation among default, financed amounts and established payment periods. The paper also shows a positive relation between the ages of entrepreneurs and their solvency probability. We confirm then those relations proposed in the model as we apply the survival analysis technique to the data and therefore provide our study with a time estimate of how long an entrepreneur may stay under default, regarding the variables used in the model. The paper can potentially drive supply expansion strategies to productive micro-credit lending organizations that deal with entrepreneurs who cannot provide collaterals when facing the need of capital, through definition of interest rates, contract periods and supplied amounts under risky conditions.